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Table 4 Third example of confounding

From: Appropriate and inappropriate methods for investigating the “gateway” hypothesis, with a review of the evidence linking prior snus use to later cigarette smoking

Unadventurous

Risk takers

Overall

5000

5000

10000

4% use A

40% use A

(Sum over unadventurous and risk takers)

A

Not A

A

Not A

A

Not A

200

4800

2000

3000

2200

7800

5% use B

3% use B

50% use B

30% use B

(sum)

(sum)

B

Not B

B

Not B

B

Not B

B

Not B

B

Not B

B

Not B

10

190

144

4656

1000

1000

900

2100

1010

1190

1044

6756

OR (within unadventurous) = (10/190)/(144/4656) = 1.70

OR (within risk takers) = (1000/1000)/(900/2100) = 2.33

OR (overall, unadjusted) = (1010/1196)/(1044/6756) = 5.49

OR (overall, adjusted for risk taking) = ((10 × 4656)/5000 + (1000 × 2100)/5000)/((190 × 144)/5000 + (1000 × 900)/5000) = 2.31

 
  1. In this example, unlike in Tables 2 and 3, there is some use of A and B in the “unadventurous”, though much less than in the “risk takers”. It is also assumed that the use of A and B is correlated in both subgroups. It is demonstrated that the unadjusted OR substantially overestimates the adjusted OR.